News almost every hour throws up a reason «to rejoice» for another step towards the rapprochement of Washington and Moscow. By Putin’s decree, has Alexander Darchiev finally been appointed as Russia’s new ambassador to the United States? Wonderful. NBC reports on the Trump administration’s plans to start sharing sensitive data with Russia (this immediately after the cessation of intelligence transfers to Ukraine, which blocked even Britain’s Storm Shadow)? Even more fun.
Let’s try to figure out what is happening.
Let’s start with the obvious. The negotiations, which began last year and are continuing right now, have already led to significant changes in bilateral relations.
Both sides show maximum satisfaction from progress in negotiations. And according to the results of the meeting in Riyadh, and according to the results of the round in Istanbul, and after other, unknown consultations.
For the first time, the world community was wary on February 12, when D. Trump with V. Putin. Rumors that such calls took place earlier were actually just rumors based on misinterpreted statements by the new US president, to whom the Kremlin decided to play along with «and not deny it through the mouth of Putin’s press secretary D. Peskov.
Shortly after, on Valentine’s Day, a romantic (probably because both sides tried to hide it) telephone conversation took place between the president’s foreign policy assistant Yu. Ushakov and the US president’s national security adviser M. Waltz. However, pragmatic issues were already discussed: the purchase of 150 «Boeing» aircraft (one of the most painful issues for Russia, where currently every flight on the plane is like playing Russian roulette), cooperation in space and energy, very interesting for both sides (as well as for China, by the way) Arctic, as well as, of course, Ukraine.
In the very first real conversation, the presidents agreed to hold talks in Saudi Arabia as a country acceptable to both sides. And he immediately behaved as a skilled businessman, emphasizing the interest of American companies, in particular ExxonMobil, in restoring positions on the Russian market. Putin easily caught the business notes of the conversation, playing it well when he announced his interest in Russia’s return to the dollar system.
On February 17-18, the «historical» meeting took place in Riyadh. In fact, it was two separate meetings: one for Ukraine, one for the normalization of bilateral relations. From the American side: Secretary of State M. Rubio, National Security Adviser M. Waltz and Special Representative for the Middle East S. Witkoff. For some reason, the special representative for the settlement in Ukraine, K. Kellogg, was not accepted.
From the Russians – assistant to the president Yu. Ushakov, minister S. Lavrov and current special representative of «for the lifting of sanctions», head of the hedge fund «Russian private equity fund» K. Dmitriev (a counterparty acceptable to the Americans and a long-time acquaintance and business partner of Witkoff). The future ambassador O. Darchiev was also not taken with him.
Nevertheless, the Russians were aware that the Trump administration desperately needed to demonstrate progress following the meeting in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it was possible to harshly reject the possibility of discussing a ceasefire (Lavrov himself openly stated in an interview «Armistice – the way to nowhere, we need final legal agreements»), and instead demand that Russia retain control over the territories already captured and enshrined in the Russian constitution, start the process of lifting sanctions from it and restoring the Russian Federation’s access to world markets.
In fact, it fully corresponds to the logic of the requirements that, as the Nowiny Polskie publication notes, the Kremlin put forward to the West. And these are: a quick reset of the government (starting with the President of Ukraine), the refusal of the West to support Ukraine with the subsequent demilitarization of the country and its deprivation of the ability to give an adequate rebuff in the event of new aggression.
And what in return? First, such a tempting (since Kissinger’s time) traditional and a priori unfulfilled promise to break with China (or at least reduce the level of cooperation).
Secondly, an insidious proposal for a concession for the extraction of minerals (the same coveted rare earth elements) in the occupied territories of Ukraine. It is clear that no one in Moscow wants to share resources. However, it is important for Russia that the US, in principle, agrees to discuss this issue, thereby legitimizing the Kremlin’s sovereignty over «new territories».
There are many examples of projects for joint Russian-American work. They are already trying to propose the joint development of the Shevchenkiv deposit of lithium ores in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk region of Ukraine (estimated reserves: ores – 14 million tons, lithium oxide – 500 thousand tons). In the future, such interaction may develop into joint work in other regions of the world, such as DR Congo, and potentially in Greenland.
Well, it would be possible to promise not to restore gas supplies to Europe. And in general, raise the topic of energy, counting on the business outlook of American visas. Here the situation is win-win, because it is no secret that without Western investments and technologies, the Russian energy industry is declining.
As one of the possible options, the American administration is promoting the idea of creating a single operating company to manage the entire gas transportation infrastructure of PJSC “Gazprom”. It is proposed to attract Western giants – BP, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell and Blackrock – as investors to this operating company.
But let’s return to the actual negotiations. In Riyadh, first of all, «agreed to negotiate further». Create strategic groups in various areas of cooperation, restore diplomatic contacts, prepare economic agreements.
In fact, according to the results of the summit in Riyadh, two Russian-American negotiation tracks were clearly defined: political (the culmination of which should one day be a meeting of the two leaders) and purely commercial. In the second, Russian oligarchs and American businessmen are actively involved. But not only – businessmen are currently working on the prospects of returning American business to Russia (the focus is on energy, mineral extraction and the financial sector).
In addition, the Russians are trying very hard «to feel» new and new topics on which the Trump administration would be interested in developing cooperation. Like the fight against drugs. Today, the representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia in the USA A. Gusev is trying very hard to demonstrate the relevant capabilities to the Ministry of Justice and Homeland Security, the FBI, and the Drug Enforcement Administration.
A little more than a week later, on February 27, another round of consultations took place in Istanbul on the development of the Saudi agreements, now purely on the lines of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The delegation of Russian diplomats was headed by «almost Ambassador» Darchiev. American – Deputy Assistant Secretary of State of the United States Sonata Coulter.
The low level of officials determined the technical nature of the issues discussed. First of all, – restoration of a full-fledged «pre-war» diplomatic presence (issuance of an agreement to Ambassador Darchiev, restoration of financial services to diplomatic missions, hiring of the local population to work for them, etc.). As mentioned, «consultations to eliminate minor stimuli».
At the same time, according to the plan of the parties, the Istanbul meeting was supposed to prepare a meeting of the heads of departments of Rubio-Lavrov. It is expected to be held in the coming days in March in Baku or again in Istanbul.
It emerges what it all goes to. Of course, the Kremlin wants to develop success. Show your own population the restoration of the status of a superpower, when one of the high-ranking American officials, preferably Trump, will take an honorable place among the spectators of the 80th anniversary of the Victory Parade on Red Square.
But in the dimension of «real politik», the Kremlin, continuing consultations at various levels right now, is still betting on a meeting in Putin – D. Trump. Calculates that «personal chemistry matters». And he believes that it is this meeting that will finally allow us to divide the world into zones of influence in a business-like manner. And he can even sign a corresponding agreement with a secret additional protocol, such as the one signed on August 23, 1939 by the heads of foreign affairs of the Third Reich and the USSR.
Therefore, the issue of Europe’s security remains a problem for Europe itself. Neither Russia nor the USA pays attention to its interests and voice, especially to Ukraine’s question – is just a bargaining chip.
