Trump’s initiatives to end the war not because of Russia’s defeat on the battlefield, but because of dialogue, give Russia a great opportunity to get out of the strategic impasse. Despite the demonstration of confidence in their forces, Moscow is well aware that the continuation of hostilities against Ukraine leads to a weakening of Russia’s strategic positions. Even the fiercest supporters of V. Putin’s regime state the threat of a rapid reduction in Russia’s economic and human potential, and ordinary Russians, against the background of a decrease in the standard of living, discuss the stated goals of SVO in kitchens as unattainable and unreasonable whims. Instead, the prospect of lifting sanctions, restoring trade, economic and investment cooperation finds a positive response among the Russian establishment, primarily in the entourage of V. Putin.
Details of the meeting of the Russian and American delegation in Saudi Arabia on February 18 this year are leaking into the public space. Among the topics that were probably discussed were joint energy projects in the Arctic and the development of rare earth metal deposits on the territory of Russia. Already on March 2, the Financial Times publishing house reported on negotiations between Russia and the United States regarding the use of the «Nord Stream 2» pipeline for gas supplies to Europe. According to journalists, the special envoy of the US president Richard Grenell and the ex-head of «Nord Stream 2 AG» Matthias Warning are involved in the negotiations, which were held in Switzerland. The latter denies the fact of negotiations, but should we believe the ex-serviceman of the German secret police «Stasi» when it comes to such sensitive topics, let everyone decide for himself.
The idea of renewing Russian gas supplies to Europe may find its supporters not only in the USA and Russia, but also in the EU. The European Union still does not have a plan for the practical implementation of the declared goal of – until 2027 to abandon Russian gas, the share of which in the European market still remains at the level of 15-20%. If American business gains control of the pipeline and likely a stake in gas production in Russia, as noted by the Financial Times, Washington can claim that American mediation will ensure Russia’s reliability as a partner.
The uncertainty created by D. Trump regarding the amount of American financial and military participation in ensuring European security gives the President of the United States a good opportunity to encourage European countries, primarily Germany, to return to the idea of buying gas from the sea pipeline «Nord Stream-2». However, after being damaged by explosions on 26 September 2022, only one pipeline thread with a capacity of 27.5 billion m3 per year remained operational. However, such a volume is quite enough to satisfy the demand for Russian gas in Europe and actually finally close the prospects of resuming gas transit through Ukraine not only of Russian, but also of Caspian gas.
Putin’s appeasement through economic cooperation looks like a case when the road to hell is paved with good intentions. After all, in exchange for its U-turn from Beijing in conditions where tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic of China threaten military clashes around Taiwan, Russia may demand the surrender of Ukraine. Meeting its demands will allow the Kremlin to receive both political and economic dividends in Europe. At the same time, Moscow will get rid of the humiliating need for economic support from the People’s Republic of China with the rights of a poor relative.
Such consequences of Russian-American rapprochement should worry China. Despite the statement of the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, Guo Jiakun, with a positive assessment of any efforts aimed at achieving peace, in Beijing it is obvious that Russia’s return to cooperation with the United States is perceived at least as ingratitude, at most as treason. And taking into account the presence among the Russian elites of supporters of the anti-Western course, who have been placing their funds in China for a long time, the maturation of the court coup and its implementation taking into account the mistakes of the head of the PMK «Wagner» E. Prigozhin no longer seems like a fantastic idea.
